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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Strategy KPI Tree |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When metrics across the organization drift apart, it arranges drivers and effects under one shared logic. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a KPI tree and owner list. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 90-180 min initial, dann laufend | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic | 3-8 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | KPI Tree, Owner List | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | MetricsStrategyAlignmentMeasurement | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |