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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Knowledge Modeling Shape-First Modeling |  Product Discovery MVP Test Matrix |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Shape-First Modeling defines data quality through shapes before implementation or integration frays at the edges. The approach fits when validation and data contracts should be part of the design from the start. | When several minimal variants compete to answer the same question, it makes comparing and choosing between them cleaner. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Test Matrix and a Test Plan. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Halber Tag pro Domain Slice | 45-75 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-4 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | SHACL or ShEx Shapes, Validation Reports, Data Contracts, Shape Documentation | Test Matrix, Test Plan | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Knowledge graphValidationSemantic | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryOptions | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |