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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Knowledge Modeling Shape-First Modeling |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Shape-First Modeling defines data quality through shapes before implementation or integration frays at the edges. The approach fits when validation and data contracts should be part of the design from the start. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Halber Tag pro Domain Slice | 45-60 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-4 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | SHACL or ShEx Shapes, Validation Reports, Data Contracts, Shape Documentation | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Knowledge graphValidationSemantic | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |