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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Operations Fishbone Diagram |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 30-60 min | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Fishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation Backlog | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Root causeQualityOperations | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |