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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Operations Fishbone Diagram |  Operations ALPEN Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 30-60 min | 10-20 min daily |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 1 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Fishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation Backlog | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Root causeQualityOperations | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations |