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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Cost of Delay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 90-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-12 | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingFlowDelivery | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision |