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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ChangeDecisionStrategy |