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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Delivery Cost of Delay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | Half day | 90-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 3-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Value Chain Map, Lever List | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision |