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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Force Field Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | In change initiatives, supporting and restraining forces sit at the table at the same time. Force Field Analysis makes these tensions explicit and shows where change can be pushed forward by strengthening or relieving. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | laufend | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 2-12 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Force Field Map, Change Levers, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationForecastingFlow | ChangeDecisionStrategy |