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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-60 min | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |