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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-90 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | DecisionTreeOptions | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions |