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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile Bucket System |  Delivery Cost of Delay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-90 min | 90-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision |