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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Delivery Cost of Delay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-90 min | 90-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision |