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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making OODA Loop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Half day | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 15-60 min je Zyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | ForecastingFlowDelivery | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy |