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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Paper fishbone diagram with a measurable effect at the head and six labeled cause branches.
Operations
Fishbone Diagram
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighLowLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen2-8 h30-60 min15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-82-82-6
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk PlanFishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation BacklogRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
Root causeQualityOperations
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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