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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper fishbone diagram with a measurable effect at the head and six labeled cause branches.
Operations
Fishbone Diagram
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowHighLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen30-60 min2-8 h15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-82-82-6
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesFishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation BacklogProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk PlanRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
Root causeQualityOperations
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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