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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper fishbone diagram with a measurable effect at the head and six labeled cause branches.
Operations
Fishbone Diagram
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowLowHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen30-60 min45-90 min2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-82-83-10
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesFishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation BacklogAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanFMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
Root causeQualityOperations
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause
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