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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making OODA Loop |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 5-20 min | 15-60 min je Zyklus | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-20 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationEffortRisk | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |