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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 60-180 min | 30-60 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-20 | 2-6 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments | SensemakingDecisionRationale |