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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Wardley Mapping |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | Wardley Mapping makes visible where an offering stands today and where it can evolve. The method connects user need, value chain, and evolution stages into a strategic basis for platform, build, or buy decisions. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h | 1-3 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 2-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Wardley Map, Strategic Options, Evolution Notes | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | StrategySystems thinkingDynamics | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics |