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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Systems Thinking System Dynamics Simulation |  Systems Thinking Wardley Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | System Dynamics Simulation makes assumptions about time, delay, and feedback testable through experiments. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports. | Wardley Mapping makes visible where an offering stands today and where it can evolve. The method connects user need, value chain, and evolution stages into a strategic basis for platform, build, or buy decisions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1-5 Modellierende, Stakeholder asynchron | 2-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Simulation Model, Scenario Reports | Wardley Map, Strategic Options, Evolution Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | Systems thinkingDynamicsSimulationAnalysis | StrategySystems thinkingDynamics |