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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Causal Loop Diagram workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Systems Thinking
Causal Loop Diagram
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen1-3 h2-8 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-82-83-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesCausal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage PointsProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk PlanCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
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