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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Causal Loop Diagram workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Systems Thinking
Causal Loop Diagram
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen1-3 h2-8 h15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-82-82-6
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesCausal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage PointsProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk PlanRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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