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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 2-6 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 3-10 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality |