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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Systems Thinking Wardley Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | Wardley Mapping makes visible where an offering stands today and where it can evolve. The method connects user need, value chain, and evolution stages into a strategic basis for platform, build, or buy decisions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 20-45 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1-10 | 2-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Wardley Map, Strategic Options, Evolution Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | StrategySystems thinkingDynamics |