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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Causal Loop Diagram workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Systems Thinking
Causal Loop Diagram
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLowLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen1-3 h45-90 min1-2 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-82-82-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesCausal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage PointsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanDIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis
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