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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Systems Thinking Iceberg Model |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | The Iceberg Model separates visible events from patterns, structures, and mental models. This turns a single observation into a deeper understanding of why a problem keeps recurring. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20-45 min | 30-60 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 | 2-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Iceberg Worksheet, Pattern Notes, Intervention Ideas | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | Systems thinkingRoot causePatterns | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics |