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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Delivery Cost of Delay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 90-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | CoD Table, Prioritization Sequence |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingFlowDelivery | PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision |