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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ForecastingFlowDelivery | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |