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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Strategy KPI Tree |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When metrics across the organization drift apart, it arranges drivers and effects under one shared logic. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a KPI tree and owner list. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min | 90-180 min initial, dann laufend | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | KPI Tree, Owner List | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | MetricsStrategyAlignmentMeasurement | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |