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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Systems Thinking Wardley Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | Wardley Mapping makes visible where an offering stands today and where it can evolve. The method connects user need, value chain, and evolution stages into a strategic basis for platform, build, or buy decisions. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 1-3 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Wardley Map, Strategic Options, Evolution Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingDecisionRationale | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | StrategySystems thinkingDynamics |