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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationExpertsForecasting |