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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  UX Research Affinity Diagramming |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When research notes, feedback, or observations sit unconnected side by side, affinity diagramming sorts the raw material into solid themes. Many individual points turn into patterns that make decisions and opportunities clearer. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45–90 min | 45-90 min | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Theme clusters, Insight statements, Opportunity areas | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SynthesisQualitativeRoot cause | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |