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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 2-6 h | 20–45 min | 1-3 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |