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| Criterion |  Operations Change Analysis |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-120 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-6 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action List | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |