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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of System Dynamics Simulation with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
System Dynamics Simulation
Causal Loop Diagram workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Systems Thinking
Causal Loop Diagram
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.System Dynamics Simulation makes assumptions about time, delay, and feedback testable through experiments. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports.A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighMediumHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 minMehrere Tage bis Wochen1-3 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
2-81-5 Modellierende, Stakeholder asynchron2-83-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanSimulation Model, Scenario ReportsCausal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage PointsCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Systems thinkingDynamicsSimulationAnalysis
FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
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