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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper fishbone diagram with a measurable effect at the head and six labeled cause branches.
Operations
Fishbone Diagram
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 min20–45 min30-60 min2-8 h
Participantsdifferent
2-8Small cross-functional group2-82-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logFishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation BacklogProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
Root causeQualityOperations
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
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