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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 20–45 min | 20-45 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group | 1-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics |