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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationEffortRisk |