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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 3-20 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tags1 shared | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |