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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Agile Ideal Days |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitysame | Low | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 15-60 min | 20–45 min | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-9 | Small cross-functional group | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationEffortAgile | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationEffortRisk |