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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Engineering Failure Scenario Analysis |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-3 h | 60-180 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | 4-20 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Failure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | FailureResilienceRisk | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |