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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 5-20 min | 20-35 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-20 | 1-5 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationEffortRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |