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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 5-20 min | 15-45 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-20 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tags1 shared | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationEffortRisk | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |