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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 5-20 min | 60-120 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-20 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationEffortRisk | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |