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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of a two-by-two Ansoff Matrix with four growth directions
Business Strategy
Ansoff Matrix
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.The Ansoff Matrix organizes growth options by market and product relation. It helps weigh expansion, diversification, and adaptation cleanly against each other.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 min1-2 h45-90 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
2-82-82-86-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanDIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning reportAnsoff Matrix, Growth Options, Risk NotesExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis
GrowthStrategyMarketPortfolio
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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