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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 2-6 h | 1-3 h | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |