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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-3 h | 20-45 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-8 | 1-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |