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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration showing three sorted card stacks and an open question about a possible group.
UX Research
Card Sorting
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When content only makes sense internally and users can't find the structure again, card sorting exposes their mental order. Terms, groups, and naming are then aligned with the target group's expectations.DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 min20-45 min1-2 h1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
2-8Based on research question2-86-30 Experten
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanContent groups, Label set, IA hypothesesDIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning reportExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Information architectureNavigationStructure
StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
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