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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A paper-based illustration representing Pirate Metrics (AARRR) with its core stages and visible working result.
Growth
Pirate Metrics AARRR
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.For products with complex usage paths, overall growth alone is too coarse to reveal bottlenecks. Pirate Metrics breaks the relationship with the product into consecutive stages and shows where the funnel actually leaks.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLowHigh
Timedifferent
45-60 min1-2 h Setup, laufend45-90 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
2-82-82-81-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingAARRR funnel, Metric baseline, Experiment backlogAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
GrowthMetricsExperiments
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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